Regional Powers Conflict and the Repercussions of the American Withdrawal on the GCC Region

In recent years, China and Russia's alliance has toiled significantly to play a significant role in the international system. The GCC states have a strategic value for the United States as well as for China and Russia. This value for China and Russia is evident in building new strategic partnerships with GCC states and competing the US by taking part in the GCC issues. The GCC region is one of the most important regions in the international system particularly in terms of economy due to its oil fortune being a strategic commodity and an energy source. Moreover, its strategic location in the international trade and maritime navigation map has attracted super powers to compete on this critical region. As a result, the United States seeks to assert its military presence in GCC region to strike a balance with other non-U.S. forces in the region. Furthermore, the U.S. seeks to achieve the same necessary balance against the Iranian regime to protect its interests by ensuring stability and security in the Middle East region. China, on the other hand, has a high interest in the GCC region to pursue its economic interests and to develop its projects and investments in the region by working on becoming a significant economic partner with the Gulf countries.

The U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf region in general and from Afghanistan in particular, might cause big concerns for Russia and China. Indeed, withdrawal is one of the strategies used by the U.S. to exert pressure on the two powers, as the U.S. has been a great contributor in establishing peace and stability in the region and a hard fighter against terrorism and Taliban. The withdrawal decision of the U.S. forces from the GCC region and Afghanistan will have an impact on the economic, security, and political interests of both Russia and China.

The withdrawal of the U.S. forces might pose a threat to China in several aspects. First, the U.S. forces withdrawal would jeopardize the oil delivery to China being the top importer of the GCC oil. Moreover, instability in Afghanistan poses a threat to the Chinese interests such as the Silk Road and the other Chinese investments in sectors like mining and infrastructure. Second, from a security dimension, the U.S. forces withdrawal will contribute to the Taliban's support to Muslim minorities on China's borders with Afghanistan such as the Igor Muslim movement, which seeks independence. This will affect China's security interests. Moreover, the rise of ISIS in Afghanistan's Khurasan province is a source of concern for the China as officials in China expressed their concern about  the increasing activity of extremist Islamic movements (under an extremist regime) and their incursion into Pakistan against its interests, as well as the increase in security tensions and a lack of stability in the region.

The rapid withdrawal of the U.S. forces from Afghanistan has supported Taliban in seizing regions from the Iranian border in the west to the Chinese border in the northeast of the country. This raises concerns about the spread of radical terrorist groups in Russia, China, and the neighboring countries. The spread could disrupts the regional balance of power, despite the U.S. support to the Turkish presence in Afghanistan under the pretext of "filling the U.S. void in the region". Turkey views this withdrawal as an opportunity to reestablish and expand its influence in the region (the strategic depth), as well as to maximize its role as a critical regional player in firming stability, however, due to sectarian and ethnic conflicts in Afghanistan, the withdrawal itself may lead to a civil war.

Based on this argument, we conclude that the U.S. withdrawal from the region poses a significant challenge to the countries of the Middle East, which will lead to the intervention of many international players in the region such as Russia, China, and Iran.  In this case, the whole region could go for an unprecedented tension and turmoil while some countries in the region will not be able to face this eminent threat or fill the void created by the U.S withdrawal due to their reliance on the U.S. forces. However, with the repercussions of the U.S. void on the region, can Russia and China fill the void, manage or resolve crises, and revitalize their diplomatic and security roles in a volatile and turbulent region where security alignment is severely affected by a growing sectarian division?

As a result, the GCC region must develop a comprehensive and coherent strategy to fill the regional void   created by the U.S. withdrawal from the region. This strategy must be based on   several pillars including unifying the GCC efforts, focusing on the security aspects of the GCC region, establishing strategic political, economic, and military partnerships to face the challenges and threats, self-reliance, and cohesion of the Gulf position, strengthening the Gulf strategic partnership with the European Union countries and other regions, defusing the Arab conflicts, and combating terrorism and extremism.